中国人什么都知道

(泡泡特约)“你翻译的新闻价值太低了,因为那些东西中国人都知道”,有人这样跟我说。细想下似乎也对,空气污染的致命性、数字监控的技术性、#19thcpc 的扯蛋性、贫富差距悬殊的危害性,等等一切,中国人似乎真的都知道。

共产党使用的依旧是威权政府的传统管制方法,也就是一边封堵,一边灌输,他们一直认为封堵比灌输更重要,万一没封住,谎言的灌输就会被真相批驳。他们在这点上真的有点落伍了,传统适用的年代可不是互联网时代,如今只要人们想知道,就肯定能知道,并且,你封啥越狠,人们就越对啥感兴趣。结果就是,中国人什么都知道。

然而,这只是一半话,目前为止赢家还是党国。其原因依旧在于,中国人仅仅是什么都知道

“我觉得做口罩比做卫衣好卖”

一位希望把中国社会的反污染抗争做成流行元素的设计师朋友这样说道,因为我出的主意是做卫衣,毕竟中国大陆当前的气温不适合T恤了。但他却不同意,他说,“如今人们最多考虑的是如何自保,而不是如何表达不满,口罩会比衣服更好卖”。

看起来他比我聪明。跳出中国大局域网后你会发现,关于污染、环保维权等相关信息中必需有人被抓被打,否则什么研究报告啊、最新调查啊,都很难吸引转发评论。因为,人们觉得这些东西自己都知道。

发表在《柳叶刀》期刊上的一项最新研究指,2015 年,全世界有约 900 万人因空气、水、土壤的有害物质而死亡,其中导致死亡的最危险疾病是心肌梗塞、中风及肺癌。绝大多数死亡病例发生在贫穷地区或新兴发展中国家。印度国内每 4 个过早死亡者中就有一个是因环境污染死亡,总数 250 万;中国环境污染死亡人数排名第二为 180 万,在提前死亡者中的占比为五分之一。

供暖季又来了,中国北方的大部分城市再次进入了聊斋画风,或许正因为是再次,如今已经波澜不惊。

我这里说的波澜和大多数网民意识里的舆论可不大一样,对于舆论来说要想出现峰值只与三种情况有关:1、新颖的主题。以前你们谁都没见过的新料儿,越刺激越好。同一个性质的料儿连续出现两三次后立刻就会过气,舆论会大跌,不管其是不是重要;2、新增受众群。比如以前外国人不知道的中国事儿,现在他们知道了,这个就叫新增受众群,容易引起舆论热潮,再或者资深小粉红忽然醒悟,认识到自己以前信任的东西都是bullshit,追悔莫及,都属于这点;3、满足大多数平台使用者的自我表达欲求。社交媒体就是个自我表达的舞台,如果希望信息受到关注,信息本身必须要切中大众的共有认知和表达欲求,如果你研究得太高深了,即便与大众息息相关,大众也不关心,因为看不懂。如果你太俗太低端了,人们看不上眼,没兴趣表达,一样不会出现太多舆论。

然而只有舆论又有什么用呢?这多年来舆论还少吗?并不是舆论本身没用,在早年,人们还希望贴出一些戴口罩的照片以表达自己对污染的不满、或者一群人戴口罩上街转一圈,然而如今,连这些都“过气”了。如果只是表达异议,加之缺乏创新能力,很快你就会玩腻,党国有的是耐心等你玩腻,祝华新不是早说过么,让人们上网骂街就能免得上街游行了。

可明明是个自我表达的时代、目测异议者也越来越多,却为什么难以将反抗表达形成流行元素而占据亚文化一席之地呢?一方面承认源于管制,加上普遍的胆怯,人们宁可隐姓埋名上网吐口水,也不敢穿上一件声明自己政治立场的衣服。另方面则恰恰是源于占据主要动机的自我表达,自我表达的目的在于满足自我而不是表达的价值本身,相比基于全社会权利的呼吸问题,人们更喜欢穿上一件写着“低端人口、困难群众”的衣服来自嘲。或者干脆如下图这样。

新闻太硬没人看,现在不硬了,好玩吗?

党代会这种消息,尤其是威权国家的党代会,大家都知道会非常死板僵化,除了媒体的工作需要,其他人大多不会看。这类新闻被称为“太硬”,媒体在播报的时候需要尽可能做得宣传性(propaganda)一些,好玩一点,以便维护流量走势。

管制是一贯的严格,中国媒体只能从民族服饰秀上找亮点,老百姓最多只注意到了江泽民的放大镜,而外媒也明显被局限,大多停留在个人崇拜法西斯化等众所周知的问题层面上。而腾讯实现了一个“软化”,气氛立马就上来了。

腾讯做了一款游戏,让用户通过在游戏中快速反复点击手机屏幕,来给习近平鼓掌。

在微信里打开这款游戏后,它首先会播放一段讲话——比如中国社会目前存在的种种“矛盾”,或者是农村减贫工作的内容。玩家有19秒钟时间尽可能多地点击屏幕的底部,操纵一双动画的手疯狂地鼓掌。

每玩一轮最多可以鼓掌1000次左右,一天之内这款游戏共收获了10亿次以上的鼓掌。也许你认为这数据是吹出来的,我无法保证几成靠谱,至少目测很多群聊都在转发这款游戏的截屏画面。

游戏的背景图像是习近平发表讲话的人民大会堂,有媒体认为这是给玩家一种身为2300名代表一员的感觉;CMR China董事总经理Shaun Rein称,多数中国人很欢乐地玩这款游戏,表达他们的支持。他表示,人们喜欢习近平昨天的发言,他们非常支持中国共产党和中国的复兴。

这种说法基本正确,但不全面,因为连很多异议立场的网友也会参与这个游戏,可能在他们心目中该游戏属于反讽。腾讯难道不知道这个社会是异议者占据大多数吗,那又为什么要砸钱做这么一个献媚的玩意?他们当然知道,但更知道其生存的掌控权在中南海,并且,当下的异议不过是口水式异议,中国人在反讽方面颇具敏感性,这款游戏在不同人眼里具有不同的意味,以社交媒体一拥而上的凑热闹心态,“一天内10亿次掌声”简直轻而易举。

“谁还能不知道贫富差距?都怪你自己没本事赚钱啊”

这是句挺常见的中国式抱怨,抱怨的不是不公平,而是为什么穷的是自己。

去年北京大学中国社会科学调查中心发布了一份《中国民生发展报告2015》,显示中国目前的收入和财产不平等状况日趋严重。报告说,中国居民收入基尼系数已经从80年代初的0.3左右上升到现在的0.45以上,而家庭财产基尼系数则从1995年的0.45扩大到2012年的0.73。记者调查发现,这份报告与2014年发布的版本内容几乎完全一致。彼时,中国官媒人民网就发文称“中国顶端1%的家庭占有全国三分之一以上财产”。研究人士认为,中国真实的基尼系数应该在0.52左右。

习近平宣称要在几年内消除贫困,暂且不议他能不能实现、以及怎么实现,仅凭近年来的诸多研究便可证实,很多危机和社会问题并非是由深陷贫困的人群造成的,而是贫富差距过大的社会的通病。

换句话说就是,不在于一个社会有多富有或多贫困,而是在于是否具备公平的分配这个社会的不平等程度造成的危机,远超过贫困本身。

比如,研究显示贫富差距与人的自尊感和不安全感存在密切关系。在不公平社会里,人们会对他人如何看待自己这件事抱有特别的敏感,这反过来就会形成一种防御机制,人会变得愈发焦虑,拼命地晒自己哪怕是伪装出来的稍高一些的社会阶层,这是容易被误会成自信的标准型低自尊表现,与他人的关系愈发冷漠,并伴随着严重的种族主义和偏执。

这种所谓的“社会评价威胁”会带来严重的自恋和焦虑,一再拉低社会互信,对社会心理状态造成影响。进而,团结起来的可能性严重下降,社群组织虚化,民间一盘散沙;抑郁症高发,众多案例显示,DSM-IV-TR 诊断系统第四轴尤为突出,酗酒、药物滥用、暴食、暴买、滥交甚至毒品在中青年代中成为主流;自我推销取代了立场表达和谦逊的反思,异议不仅没有上升到反抗,相反却跌入了口水和炫技。

不公平社会带来的普遍焦虑令人们纷纷输给了跨期选择问题,投机变成了智慧,努力工作哪里有炒房炒股来得痛快?这个社会告诉你有钱人都不是凭知识文化发财的,知识无用论自然会大行其道。为了提升社会地位,人们选择更加鲁莽的策略,目光越来越短浅,只能看到眼下的欢愉。

“成功”与否变成了一系列外在的符号,名牌服饰、收入、住房、汽车,甚至粉丝量,所有人都在往上爬,却不会去反抗不公平的社会现状。因为信任没了,合作不再,人与人之间变成了单纯的竞争关系,超个人主义要的只是我赢,而不是共赢

物质财富差距越大,社会地位差距的影响就越深远,在不平等的社会里,对地位较低者的偏见就越严重社会顶层的富人和底层的穷人之间的距离就越远。人们争先恐后的通过表达自己对地位较低者的优越感来维持自己的社会地位,被剥夺来社会地位的人,只能拿更弱的弱者来出气,以试图重建自己的地位。

英文有句俗语叫“船长踹服务生,服务生踹猫”,反映的就是对地位更低的人的攻击和憎恨。人们都知道这个社会是互害的,但这种互害的走势绝不是自下而上的反攻,而是自上而下传递。

心理学称之为“错位攻击”。又叫做“骑自行车反应”——你看骑自行车的人,对领先者的姿势是鞠躬的,而对落后者则呈现蹬踹的姿势,很形象吧。只有在平等的社会里才有包容和同情,而不平等的社会里只有欺凌和抱大腿。

恶意愚蠢的目的就是把你变得更加愚蠢

又有谁谁翻墙被抓了,用VPN是危险的……这种话如今越来越常见了,甚至有人还据此编出了某大城市地铁站有警察站岗专门检查过客的手机中有没有安装VPN的假消息,这是为吓唬谁呢?

共产党对VPN的管制本身还算不得十足的恶意愚蠢,因为VPN不光是为了穿越GFW用的,它是一件维护隐私安全的利器,可以混淆用户的IP地址,或在用户进行WEB浏览时增加一层安全保护。然而当局的恶意愚蠢用在了这个糟糕的墙上,作为互联网时代最寻常的信息获取都被变得奢侈起来,加之中国人根本对隐私无感,于是全部使用动机都被翻墙占据了。

反过来看,那些认为自己不翻墙也没什么损失的人,自然对VPN就没了需求。VPN在美国的销量远超过中国,尤其是在棱镜事件后直到特朗普时代的来临,隐私威胁引起了全社会的警惕。然而随着共产党对网络管制的兴趣愈加浓厚,民间反而对翻墙失去了积极,早一两年前便有VPN卖家抱怨翻墙的人越来越少。为什么呢?

简要总结一下收集到的不用VPN的理由:1、反正不会错过什么消息,几百人的群里只要有一个人翻墙,就让他做专职搬运工吧(其结果就是这个唯一翻墙者的兴趣品味定位了全部几百人的眼界);2、上网就是聊天解闷而已,没有墙外那些信息一样不耽误聊(这点在年轻人非政治热心群体中占据绝对大比重);3、谁会在网上说实话呢?被他们看到也没什么大不了的,反正不是真心所想(这种观点在以反讽为荣的群体中最常见,有的微信群聊干脆把群名改成了“共产党万岁”,以示对审查的讽刺,但这有什么意义呢?);4、用VPN网速太慢,抢不到红包(这个真的无力置评)。

那么换个方向,用VPN的人大多是什么想法呢?:1、吐槽痛快,骂街潇洒(基于浅薄的自我表达,没有深入思考,也就无从利用)这就是纯粹的被恶意愚蠢绑架的结果。大局域网内连口水都吐不得,但人们并没有因此激发出进入反抗的升级模式,反而却认为“口水是有价值的”,把删帖喝茶等管制手段一概认为是“党国害怕了”,于是得出了自己了不起的结论,实在无语。

2、知情者优越性(基于表演的传播)如果几百人群里唯一的那个翻墙者是你,那意味着你具有绝对大的发言权,其余所有人都要关注你的动态,是不是很满足呢?真的有人只为了这份满足感才选择的付费翻墙软件,然而恰是这种被满足的需求导致,他们的眼光更多停留在那些仅仅是足有足够高吸睛度的信息上,根本不辨真伪。他们成了推特中文圈这个中文网络最大的假消息滋生地的铁粉。另外那几百人什么样就不用说了。

然而,政府的管制部门再次使用恶意愚蠢帮助了那些毫无价值的假消息的传播——传播者被喝茶了,喝茶的消息进而得以迅速传播,更多人便就此认为宫廷八卦、推特小报“价值连城”。

3、“我是在反抗”。表面上看很合理,对于信息封锁的反抗就是打破封锁,但打破之后呢,你真的获得有价值的内容了吗?那可不一定。信息自由意味着你需要更多判断力和思考,否则只能花钱买梯子去养活那些用姿态口水刷粉的营销客。

恶意愚蠢的唯一目的就是把你变得更蠢你以为党国不知道吐槽不会威胁到他们的政权稳固吗?还是不知道VPN的真正用途?当然不会,他们比你我知道的更多,恶意愚蠢的意思就是装傻,拉低所有人的智商下线,从而让你我更易于满足、更大程度上远离那些真正能威胁到他们的层面。

……

中国人什么都知道,绝大多数人知道自身被不公平待遇的滋味,但伊斯兰恐惧症和厌女症也是大多数。人们知道特朗普抛弃了PPT,让更多的亚洲国家加入了中国的区域性贸易俱乐部;人们也知道美国拒绝了巴黎协定,让大力发展新能源的中国分外光彩;腾讯控股买入特斯拉5%的股份,而白宫忙着建造边境墙……但还是有不少人把“遏制北京”的希望寄托在这届美国政府身上,就像所有人都知道郭某人称赞习近平是“千年不遇的圣君”,也依旧视之为“策略”而继续寄予希望一样。

我只是知道中国人什么都知道,但我不知道,为什么在充分知晓的情况下依旧一事无成。

 

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